These are the main overtones and quotes from the presentation by Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics from Uppsala University, Sweden, at a luncheon seminar hosted by the Australian Institute of Energy in Perth on 23 November 2005. The messages of the renown scientist, from a country that has given us the Nobel price, were sobering but cautiously optimistic.

The era of cheap oil is ending, and it is high time the global community has awakened to it. With 30 Gbarrels/year of consumption, the limit has been reached, or will be reached in the next few years. The supply will not end sharply, but it will not increase either to meet the constantly growing demand that underpins the global economic progress. Metaphorically speaking, the demand/supply jaws of a oil-hungry, howling wolf will open – as on the graph below – and closing them will become one of the most urgent tasks of humanity. Even if the demand stays at 30 Gbarrels/year, the “wolf” will need 1000 Gbarrels during the next 30 years – and 1000 Gbarrels is approximately what is left in global reserves.

Most of the consumed oil comes from large oilfields i.e. those in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Russia, and those are nearing or have reached their peak of production. There are no more large oilfields to be discovered. Advances in technology are only likely to result in discovering small oilfields and in exploiting so far economically unviable parts of the existing large ones.

With the most optimistic estimates, all technology-driven additional gains can only amount to 100 Gbarrels at the most, which could last the world – if it solely depended on it – only for 4 years. Recently discovered ‘large’ reserves in Kazakhstan (approx. 10 Gbarrels), for instance, could only last the world for 4 months.

The USA and China, the world’s largest oil consumers, have taken steps to secure their shares. The USA now controls the Iraq oil reserves, and China is siding with oil producing Middle East countries, which took part in the anti-American coalition during the Iraq wars.

Doomsayers would see from this signs of a disaster and the approaching Armageddon. Realists and cautious optimists maintain that this can be averted, and the resolve of the positively thinking world can make it happen.

What is required is immediate action, wherever possible, with whatever means available, without waiting for decisions from above, revolutionary discoveries or miraculous interventions. The easily available measures include those currently used or considered i.e. energy saving, renewable energy (wind, solar, bio-fuels,) and promotion of alternative lifestyles involving less energy use.

Even today oil is so cheap that it is not commercially viable to seriously invest in identifying new sources of energy. When economic mechanisms catch up to make investment possible, it may be too late.

The time of procrastinating and waiting for others to act on our behalf is over. People in the position of power, authority and influence should adopt new thinking and take steps to prepare for the era without oil.

The old paradigm of Governments concerned with re-election, rather than with the best interest of the people they govern, is becoming a game the world can no longer afford. A new paradigm and new breed of leaders are required to meat the demands of future challenges.

The Swedish government has set an example by introducing an unprecedented national programme against dependence on oil. The program includes measures such as tax concessions for conversion from oil, encouraging more renewable energy and renewable fuels and increased resources for research and investment in technology.

Professor Aleklett is President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO), which is an international network of scientists working to determine the time and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints (www.peakoil.net).

The Australian branch of the ASPO (www.aspo-australia.org.au) was launched by Professor Aleklett during his visit to Australian on 21 November. The new ASPO Australian Convenor is Bruce Robinson from Perth.

The ASPO, and similarly minded organisations, have a role to play to help the world snap out of the self-destructing addiction to fossil fuels and turn the threat of depleting oil into an opportunity to find more fulfilling and less consumer-oriented ways of living.

In its intoxication with cheap oil, the world is not capable of turning its attention to those opportunities, and to discovering the vast amounts of energy we know the Universe abounds in.

Robert Panasiewicz

Note: Material related to the launch of the ASPO-Australia and Professor Aleklett’s presentation may be found on www.aspo-australia.org.au